Opinion: Still think the Tesla Cybertruck is coming to Australia? Don’t hold your breath

There haven’t been many vehicles in the past five years that have divided opinion like the Tesla Cybertruck.

When the Cybertruck was unveiled in the US as a concept three-and-a-half years ago, some industry observers initially thought it was a joke. “That can’t be it, right? Surely the real thing is behind that curtain?”

As history has shown, the triangle-shaped vehicle revealed on stage – hit with a pair of steel balls that shattered the high-strength windows rather than deflect them – was not a facade. It was, incredibly, the real deal.

After years of well-documented delays – and a global pandemic – Tesla finally looks set to put its controversial new ute into production in the US in the next few months, though most customers in the queue are unlikely to get their cars until next year.

Among the questions that have lingered since the covers were lifted: will it come to Australia?

Since day one, industry experts assumed the Cybertruck would be too angular and bluff to meet Australian motor vehicle regulations, especially in terms of pedestrian-protection standards.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in 2020 the Cybertruck had been engineered with US regulations in mind – and that Tesla “made the decision to not make this a world truck”, so it “doesn’t comply with [the] EU’s specs and stuff” (many of which apply to vehicles approved for sale and use in Australia).

However, perhaps giving ute buyers in Australia false hope, local customers had for the first two-and-a-half years after its unveiling been invited to place a refundable $150 pre-order on the Tesla Cybertruck on the company's local website.

Another reason for optimism: every previous Tesla passenger vehicle sold in the US has been built in right-hand drive and exported to Australia.

And Elon Musk later said the Cybertruck could come here if it meets Australian vehicle regulations.

So surely there was at least a chance it could come here, right?

Doubts began to emerge when Tesla removed the ability to place a pre-order on a Cybertruck in Australia last May (though local consumers could, and still can, register their interest).

Now there's another worrying sign for Tesla Cybetruck fans – and potential buyers – in Australia.

Tesla recently aborted plans to reintroduce the updated Model S sedan and Model X SUV in Australia. Those pioneering models will not be built in right-hand drive – and this may be our biggest clue yet that Tesla no longer has global aspirations for its entire range of vehicles.

Facelifts for the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X were unveiled in early 2021 and confirmed for Australia – with pricing and pre-orders announced at the time.

Within a year of the unveiling, Tesla had pulled delivery dates and prices from its Australian website – and last month, shortly before the plug was pulled for good, pre-orders for both vehicles were paused, much like the Cybertruck a year earlier.

Two months ago, it would have been unusual to suggest the updated Model S and Tesla Model X would not eventually return to Australia.

Their predecessors had already been engineered for right-hand drive, the California factory in which they’re built can support right-hand drive, and demand for Tesla’s other vehicles in Australia is growing.

But if the Model S and Model X will no longer be offered locally – at least in this generation – there’s little hope the Cybertruck will.

Right-hand-drive vehicles only account for about 25 per cent of new-car production globally.

Only nine out of 54 countries where Tesla sells vehicles are right-hand-drive markets – that equates to a ratio of 16 per cent, versus the industry average of 25 to 30 per cent, and according to calculations by Drive, less than 10 per cent of Tesla vehicles sold globally last year had their steering wheel on the right.

Those nine markets are Ireland, the UK, Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand. How many of those countries would really be interested in a triangle-shaped, full-size electric pick-up that’s more than two metres wide – and if they are, how many could they sell to make a right-hand-drive version worth the investment?

The answer to both those questions: probably not many. Adding to the uphill battle for a right-hand-drive Cybertruck is that in a number of the countries (including the UK and Japan) listed it is legal to buy, register and drive left-hand-drive vehicles.

It means Tesla could offer the Cybertruck in left-hand drive in those markets, and neatly avoid the expense of re-engineering a right-hand-drive version.

That's not an option in Australia, as it’s not legal here to buy and register a new left-hand-drive car (that isn’t an import on the Special Enthusiast Vehicle Scheme register).

This is all before you consider the concerns surrounding the Cybertruck’s design – which, with sharp edges and a flat nose, doesn’t look particularly friendly to pedestrians in the testing conducted in Europe and Australia.

A survey of Cybertruck reservation holders on a Tesla enthusiast forum in 2020 found Australia could be the biggest market for the Cybertruck outside North America. But we still accounted for only 3.2 per cent of responses to the survey ­– versus 1.4 per cent in the UK and a staggering 76 per cent in the US alone.

Would that be enough volume to justify the right-hand-drive investment for the vehicle – and the new Texas factory it will be built in? Probably not.

As Tesla matures and edges closer to the mainstream (its Model Y was the best-selling car in Europe from January to March 2023), the company needs to start making financial decisions like a major car company does – and that means taking fewer risks on future models.

In axing right-hand-drive versions of the Model S and Model X – after keeping Australian reservation holders in limbo for two years with few updates – Tesla has now showed its hand and set a dangerous precedent that not all its cars will be sold in every market.

Tesla fans on social media think we will learn more about right-hand-drive Cybertruck plans when the first left-hand-drive vehicles are produced and “torn down” ­­to determine if the bulkhead – the sheetmetal dividing the cabin and footwells from the front of the car – has cut-outs in the correct spots for placing the steering wheel on the right side.

Watch this space, and don’t cancel your pre-order yet. But if I were a betting man…