Statistician writes formula to predict child tantrums on road trips

A UK statistician has calculated a formula which he claims can predict the likelihood and timing of children throwing a tantrum in a car while on road trips.

Dr James Hind, a lecturer in statistics at Nottingham Trent University in the UK, was commissioned by UK insurance company LV= Britannia Rescue to conduct research into when tantrums occur on long car journeys.

According to Dr Hind, by using the formula T = 70 + 0.5E + 15F - 10S, parents can now better predict when a tantrum may occur.

Based on responses from 2000 UK parents, the study found the average time (T) before a tantrum is thrown is approximately 70 minutes, although this can vary due to a number of factors.

Dr Hind’s study claims the time it takes for a tantrum to occur can be reduced by every minute a child is entertained (E), with food (F) also helping to delay the onset of an outburst by 15 minutes.

However, the presence of siblings (S) in the car is an apparent source of agitation, reducing the time until a tantrum is thrown by 10 minutes.

Dr Hind believes up to two hours of driving without a tantrum is possible for a single-child family, although particularly long journeys will result in more frequent dummy spits.

“If you have only one child, and you can keep them entertained and occasionally bribe them with food, you could manage two hours of tantrum-free driving,” said Dr Hind in a media statement.

“Unfortunately, two children with no entertainment and no snacks can brew up a tantrum in just 40 minutes.

“Snacks are important but there is a limit to how much they can help, so keep them to two an hour max. Entertainment is key, but even that fails with really long journey times.

“Taking breaks to ‘reset the clock’ is important for preventing tantrums, as well as making sure you are not tired while driving.”

What are your approaches to delay or mitigate a road trip tantrum? Leave a comment below and tell us your top tantrum tips.